US President Donald Trump on Sunday refused to say whether the United States will enter a recession this year, offering vague reassurances when pressed on the issue.
“I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked if a recession was coming in 2025. “There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big — we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said. “It takes a little time.”
Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more confident in dismissing concerns. “Absolutely not,” he told NBC when asked if Americans should prepare for an economic downturn.
Despite these claims, economic warning signs are mounting. The stock market just ended its worst week since the November election. Consumer confidence has dropped, as shoppers worry about rising prices caused by Trump’s shifting tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
Adding to the uncertainty, mass layoffs continue across government agencies, with billionaire advisor Elon Musk overseeing widespread job cuts.
When reporters later asked Trump again about the risk of a recession, he gave a noncommittal answer aboard Air Force One: “Who knows?”
Economic indicators are raising alarms. The Atlanta Federal Reserve now predicts a 2.4% contraction in GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025, which would be the worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic advisor, suggested on ABC that tariffs might become permanent. He explained that their duration depends on how the targeted countries respond. If they fail to meet US demands, the tariffs could remain in place as part of a new economic equilibrium, he said.
In his State of the Union speech, Trump told Americans to expect “a little disturbance” as tariffs take effect. “We’re okay with that. It won’t be much,” he insisted.
However, economic experts remain cautious. Goldman Sachs raised its estimate of a US recession in the next 12 months from 15% to 20%. Morgan Stanley also predicted weaker growth than expected.
A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The last US recession occurred in early 2020 during the COVID-19 crisis, when millions lost jobs.
