With the Lion Census 2025 just a few weeks away, forest officials suggest that extensive conservation efforts have resulted in a thriving lion population. Forest officials say that trends indicate the population of Asiatic lions could touch the 900-mark in the official estimation slated between May 10 and 13 this year. The final count is likely to be revealed only in June.
Senior forest officials concede that as lions spread their footprint far and wide in the state, informal estimations speculate the number of lions could be anywhere between 1,400 and 1,500.
Based on previous growth trends — 27.25% in 2015 and 29.78% in 2020 — this year’s increase could exceed 30%. “Official lion numbers could touch 900 in the 2025 census. Informal estimations, however, peg this number close to 1,400-1,500 in the state,” said a senior forest official requesting anonymity.
The 2020 census recorded 674 lions in Gujarat. Top officials in the state forest department, speaking on condition of anonymity, reveal that internal counts consistently show higher numbers. They admit that even in 2020, the internal assessment pegged the count at around 1,000, despite the officially declared figure of 674.
Why the conservative approach? The forest officials conduct monthly population checks during each full moon wherein lions, including cubs below one year of age, are counted as ‘actual observed population,’ which is always on the higher side. The official number, however, reflects a conservative reporting approach.
“The discrepancy exists because wildlife census figures typically include a deliberately conservative margin. For big cats, there is usually an error margin of 10%, leading agencies to report on the lower side. While the National Tiger Conservation Authority gives a range (3,167 to 3,925 tigers in the 2022 census), Gujarat has consistently chosen to declare only the safest, lower count rather than providing a range,” an expert on Big Cats who is associated with the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) said.
Experts said that the forest department has also been conservative in declaring the number of cubs as the mortality rate among the young ones is very high. A WII study found that the survival rate of cubs was the lowest in their first year of birth as they face threats such as infanticide (60%), abandonment (13%), and other natural causes (27%). “If during the census, 100 cubs are spotted, only 50% are shown in the count, which is an accepted practice during the count of Big Cats,” a top forest official said.
Lion Territory Expanded by 36% in Five Years
The increasing number of lions is reflected in their ever-expanding territory. These big cats are now present in the entire Saurashtra region barring Devbhumi Somnath. Their range increased from 22,000 sq km in 2015 to 30,000 sq km in 2020 — a 36% expansion. Recent sightings include areas near Diu, Jetpur, and the outskirts of Rajkot city, with viral videos capturing lions strolling along the shoreline in Gir Somnath district.
A wildlife expert who was formerly with WII said, “I certainly believe that the lion population is much higher than the projected estimate.” He said that based on the reported deaths of 165 cubs and sub-adults, and applying standard population mortality rates of 10-15%, the total population could range from 1,100 to 1,650 lions.
He said that this year too, the forest department may go ahead with the count without involving WII volunteers or CCTV cameras. Another senior lion expert suggested the govt deliberately plays down the numbers to avoid public concern pertaining to human-animal conflict, which is on the rise. This reluctance explains why the department does not use CCTV cameras during counts, he added.
