In a recent interview at the SXSW conference, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna expressed his views on the future of AI in the software industry, challenging the notion that AI will soon replace programmers. This perspective comes in contrast to his previous warnings about the potential impact of AI on jobs.
Last year, in an interview with Bloomberg, Arvind Krishna mentioned that IBM will halt the hiring for its non-customer-facing roles, as these positions are likely to be automated by AI in the near future. “I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period,” Krishna stated.
Krishna emphasised that AI will not replace programmers anytime soon but will instead serve as a tool to enhance their productivity. He disagreed with a prediction by Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, who suggested that 90% of code could be written by AI within the next three to six months. Krishna believes the figure is more likely to be around 20-30%.
“I think the number is going to be more like 20-30% of the code could get written by AI — not 90%. Are there some really simple use cases? Yes, but there’s an equally complicated number of ones where it’s going to be zero,”Krishna said.
Krishna highlighted that AI will make programmers more efficient, allowing them to produce more code with the same number of people. He argued that history has shown that the most productive companies gain market share, and AI will help achieve this by boosting output rather than eliminating jobs.
“If you can do 30% more code with the same number of people, are you going to get more code written or less? Because history has shown that the most productive company gains market share, and then you can produce more products, which lets you get more market share,” added Krishna.
While acknowledging the potential of AI to improve productivity, Krishna also pointed out the unresolved challenges around intellectual property and the need for a balanced approach. He compared the debates over AI replacing workers to early debates over calculators and Photoshop replacing mathematicians and artists.
IBM plans a hiring freeze, may replace 7,800 jobs with AI
Last year, it was reported that IBM (International Business Machines Corp.) plans to temporarily pause the hiring for positions it believes could soon be automated using artificial intelligence. In an interview with Bloomberg, IBM CEO Arvind Krishna revealed that the company will cease recruitment for its non-customer-facing roles, as these positions are likely candidates for AI automation in the near future.
“I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period,” Krishna told Bloomberg. This means approximately 7,800 positions will be lost to AI. The company also mentioned that this would include not filling empty roles when employees leave on their own.
“More mundane tasks such as providing employment verification letters or moving employees between departments will likely be fully automated,” Krishna said. He further added that specific HR duties, like assessing the productivity and composition of the workforce, are less likely to be replaced by AI technology in the next ten years.
