China’s population shrank for the third straight year in 2024, even though births rose slightly, underscoring a persistent long-term risk for the economy.
The total number of people in China fell by over 1.39 million to 1.408 billion last year, according to data released by the National Statistics Bureau on Friday.
Around 9.54 million babies were born, which is 520,000 more than the year before.
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This bump might be partly due to the belief that the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac is lucky for having children. Even so, it was still the second-lowest number of births since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
“Many couples who delayed childbearing during the three years of the Covid-19 pandemic chose to have babies in 2024 — that is the main cause of the uptick,” said He Yafu, an independent demographer. “But I estimate the number of newborns will drop in 2025.”
The annual drop in population shows how the Chinese government has struggled to halt a falling birth rate, the result of decades of restrictive family planning policies, rising childcare costs and changing social norms. The number of newborns has been declining steadily since the 1960s, except for a brief uptick in 2016 as the government relaxed its one-child policy.
Bloomberg Intelligence has estimated that China’s population will shrink to 1.36 billion by 2035, a level not seen since 2012, though that may be delayed if couples could be persuaded to have more babies. In October, authorities pledged to better support families with multiple children, including by helping with housing, health care and employment.
China’s demographic challenges could eventually hurt the nation’s economic prospects as a shrinking workforce puts a strain on growth. Additionally, an expanding elderly population would pile more pressure on the underfunded pension system.
Last year, China said it would gradually raise the retirement age for the first time since 1978, despite the public disgruntlement the decision caused.
