Microsoft cofounder Bill Gates predicts a sobering scenario for global health, estimating a 10-15% chance of another pandemic emerging within the next four years, according to a recent Wall Street Journal interview.
“The chance of a natural pandemic in the next four years is somewhere between 10 and 15 percent,” Gates stated emphatically. “And it’d be nice to think we’re actually more ready for that than we were last time. But so far we’re not.”
When pressed about global preparedness, Gates was unequivocal: “We’re absolutely not” ready for another potential outbreak. His assessment stems from ongoing concerns about worldwide health infrastructure and lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Gates has been a persistent voice in pandemic preparedness for years. In a 2015 TED Talk, he presciently warned that the world was unprepared for a deadly outbreak—a prediction that proved tragically accurate during the coronavirus pandemic. Subsequently, he authored “How to Prevent the Next Pandemic” in 2022, offering comprehensive recommendations for global health strategy.
The billionaire philanthropist argues that political divisions and insufficient global cooperation continue to hamper effective pandemic prevention. “People, rather than having a consensus about what tools are missing, are mostly still replaying the various mistakes that were made,” he explained.
His concerns are backed by scientific research indicating that pandemics are becoming more likely due to factors such as climate change and increasing population density. Gates has consistently advocated for stronger quarantine policies, increased investment in disease monitoring, and accelerated vaccine research and development.
