New Delhi: With the assembly elections just three weeks away, Delhi’s middle class, which comprises a significant 45% of its population and could prove to be a key deciding factor, seems undecided – torn between the allure of AAP’s ‘single-engine’ promise and the appeal of BJP’s ‘double-engine’ vision.
As the campaign heats up, political parties are focusing on wooing the middle class in what appears primarily a contest between BJP and AAP.
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This segment, which typically supports BJP at the national level, has demonstrated a clear inclination towards AAP in the previous two assembly polls. The 2013 elections marked a significant shift in Delhi’s political landscape, with substantial middle-class participation ending Congress’s 15-year governance.
This time, while BJP looks to return to power after 27 years, AAP is seeking to secure a third straight term. After a decade, however, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party is confronting mixed public sentiment.
While several residents acknowledge improvements in basic utilities, the ongoing Centre-state discord is perceived to be “hindering progress”. Across the city, local parks and kiosks are abuzz with discussions about politics and the coming polls. For many, seamless governance and sustainable development seem to top the priority list.
Nimit Sharma, a businessman in his 50s who lives in New Rajendra Nagar, expresses concern over e-rickshaw congestion in his area and rash driving by DTC bus drivers, which he describes as “maut ke samaan (like death)”. While acknowledging that power supply has vastly improved — “pehle bijli ki dikkat thi, ab jati nahi hai (it was erratic earlier, but is stable now)” — he says “unshackled governance” is needed to steer Delhi forward.
Samarjit Sen, a resident of Chittaranjan Park, also highlights issues with e-rickshaws in residential areas, calling their behaviour “disruptive”. He notes Delhi govt’s efforts, but stresses the need for consistent maintenance and attention to civic issues, particularly regarding road quality and infrastructure oversight.
Ashok Vihar resident Rajesh Kundu, who is in his 50s, had backed AAP in the last two elections. This time, he is on the fence. On one hand, he notices the numerous complaints by AAP about LG’s “constraints” and BJP’s “interference”, but on the other, he is bothered by undelivered promises on the Lokpal bill and the Yamuna’s restoration. The recent announcement of financial assistance to women fails to convince him, especially as a similar assurance remains unfulfilled in Punjab. “Why now, after a decade?” he wonders, saying he’s inclined to view such initiatives as “calculated political moves”.
In Karol Bagh, Deepak Gulati (53), who owns a hardware shop, says “significant public support” for PM Narendra Modi could influence voters. He recognises AAP’s “tangible progress” but, at the same time, believes Modi’s widespread appeal might affect the electoral outcome.
Air and water pollution continue to be crucial issues for several residents. Manish Sharma (50), an ayurvedic doctor living in Janakpuri, says for his father, the worsening situation has meant frequent visits to the hospital. Environmental concerns, he adds, must be paramount for the incoming administration. “Despite the current govt’s claims of progress, action has been inadequate. There should be an urgent and detailed plan to tackle these issues,” says Sharma.
While noting that mohalla clinics are beneficial, he says they offer only a “partial solution”. “Comprehensive healthcare should be accessible to all,” he adds.
For Mohan Lal, a resident of CR Park, the need of the hour is to find the right balance between urban development and welfare schemes. While he does not personally benefit from subsidies, he says he understands their importance for those in need. Noting improvements in electricity, roads and digital services, Lal says, “Sustainable development should support social welfare programmes, ensuring both progress and community support.”
Electoral behaviour in Delhi reflects a mix of religious, caste and socio-economic factors. According to analysts, the middle class has shown resistance to electoral incentives, and instead prioritised development, transparency and accountability.
Voter turnout in Delhi grew from 57.5% in 2008 to 66% in 2013, yielding dramatic results. In 2015, the turnout rose to 67.4%, but was down to 62.8% in 2020.
Recent trends indicate lower participation by the middle class, with several constituencies showing lower turnout in 2020 compared to 2015. Election Commission data reveals turnout dropped from 66.5% to 58.7% in Malviya Nagar, from 62.9% to 58.2% in Rajendra Nagar, from 67.2% to 61.4% in Laxmi Nagar, and from 65.4% to 61.2% in Patparganj.
According to CSDS Post-Poll Studies, AAP garnered 55% support from middle-class voters in 2015, which declined to 53% in 2020, while BJP’s support amongst this demographic grew from 35% to 39% over the two elections. As the parties gear up for Feb 5, this could be a worrying factor for AAP.
