India’s quiet yet deliberate engagement with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan is reshaping South Asia’s strategic landscape, leaving Pakistan in a precarious position.
Driving the news
- The latest meeting between foreign secretary
Vikram Misri and Afghanistan’s acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai underscores this shift. Both sides discussed trade, regional security, and developmental cooperation, marking a significant departure from India’s traditionally adversarial stance toward theTaliban . - India and the Taliban’s meeting in Dubai centered on using Iran’s
Chabahar port to facilitate trade. This move allows Afghanistan to bypass Pakistan’s Karachi and Gwadar ports, potentially reducing its dependence on Islamabad for trade routes. Misri and Muttaqi also discussed restarting visas for Afghans, particularly for medical treatment, education, and trade purposes, a move that could further solidify ties between the two nations. - This high-level engagement is the first since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, marking a notable shift in India’s approach. Over the past two years, India has cautiously re-engaged with Kabul, beginning with humanitarian aid, including food, medicines, and vaccines. However, the Dubai meeting signals India’s intent to elevate its involvement in Afghanistan, including discussions on developmental projects and economic cooperation.
Why it matters: Pakistan’s waning influence on Taliban
- This burgeoning relationship comes at a time of growing tension between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Islamabad, once a staunch ally of the Taliban, now finds itself at odds with Kabul over issues like cross-border militancy and refugee repatriation. The changing dynamics between these three players have implications for regional trade, security, and diplomacy.
- Pakistan has historically maintained a stronghold over Afghanistan through its support for the Taliban, often viewed as a strategic counterweight to India. However, tensions between Islamabad and Kabul have reached a boiling point. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harboring militants from the
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has been responsible for escalating attacks in Pakistan. - India’s increasing engagement with Afghanistan threatens to erode Pakistan’s strategic leverage over its neighbor. Islamabad now faces the possibility of being diplomatically isolated as Kabul looks beyond its traditional ties.
- Economic implications: The decision to use Chabahar port could significantly impact Pakistan’s economy. Landlocked Afghanistan relies heavily on Pakistan for its trade routes, but the use of Chabahar provides an alternative that reduces Islamabad’s economic and strategic importance. This could further strain Pakistan’s already struggling economy, which is grappling with high inflation and a depreciating currency.
The big picture
- Regional power shift: India’s growing involvement in Afghanistan represents a broader shift in regional power dynamics. By aligning itself with Kabul, New Delhi is positioning itself as a counterbalance to China and Pakistan’s influence in South Asia.
- India’s strategic calculations: India’s outreach to the Taliban is pragmatic, driven by regional security and economic considerations. Despite not officially recognizing the Taliban government, India understands the importance of maintaining a foothold in Afghanistan. It has invested over $3 billion in development projects in Afghanistan over the last two decades, including schools, roads, and dams.
- Engaging with Kabul allows India to protect its past investments while also positioning itself as a key player in Afghanistan’s future development. The move also aligns with India’s broader regional strategy, which seeks to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its influence in neighboring Pakistan.
Afghanistan’s balancing act
For the Taliban, engaging with India is a strategic move to demonstrate autonomy and reduce dependency on Pakistan. The Taliban’s acting foreign Mmnister Muttaqi described India as a “significant regional partner,” signaling Kabul’s intent to strengthen ties with New Delhi.
By diversifying its partnerships, Afghanistan can navigate its way out of economic isolation while countering narratives that it is merely a puppet of Pakistan. This approach also provides the Taliban with an opportunity to attract aid and investments from other regional players, including Iran and China.
Between the lines
- India’s outreach to the Taliban highlights a pragmatic shift in its foreign policy, but it also underscores the limitations of Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan. For Islamabad, the growing proximity between Kabul and New Delhi represents a failure of its long-standing strategy of using Afghanistan as a buffer state against India.
- The Taliban’s willingness to engage with India reflects its desire to reduce dependency on Pakistan while seeking new avenues for trade and development. This realignment, however, does not come without risks. By engaging with a regime criticized for human rights abuses, India risks undermining its global image as a democracy and a defender of human rights.
- For Pakistan, the stakes are even higher. The loss of influence in Afghanistan not only weakens its strategic position but also complicates its efforts to address domestic security challenges. The growing isolation of Pakistan in the region could force Islamabad to rethink its approach toward both Afghanistan and India.
What’s next
Analysts like Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan’s former UN ambassador, stress that Pakistan must prioritize trust-building with Afghanistan to repair strained ties and regain lost influence. However, Islamabad’s frequent border closures, airstrikes, and repatriation of Afghan refugees have created resentment, pushing the Taliban to seek alternatives.
India’s evolving role: India is likely to deepen its engagement with Afghanistan through development projects, trade, and humanitarian aid. However, this involvement will remain cautious, as India balances its interests with concerns about the Taliban’s human rights record and its potential to harbor anti-India elements.
The resumption of visas for Afghans, particularly for medical and educational purposes, could be a key step in strengthening people-to-people ties. This move could also enhance India’s soft power in the region, providing it with leverage in future diplomatic engagements.
(With inputs from agencies)
