NEW DELHI: 2024 will be remembered for the return of coalition politics at the Centre after a gap of 10 years with the regional parties playing a key role in the formation of the BJP-led NDA 3.0 government. Even the opposition space was firmly dominated by a coalition of regional parties – which were led by the Congress but not dominated by the grand-old-party.
The BJP, which created history in 2014 by winning majority on its own and then bettering its performance in 2019, failed to touch the half-way mark in 2024. This brought the focus back on regional parties, which though being part of NDA 1.0 and NDA 2.0 also had little say in the alliance as the BJP was not dependent on their numbers for the survival of its governments.
Before 2014, the last time India saw a one-party majority in Lok Sabha was in 1984 when the Congress, under Rajiv Gandhi, won over 400 seats after the killing of Indira Gandhi.
However, in 1989, regional parties gained prominence as the Congress started losing ground. The grand-old-party could retain less than half of the seats it had won five years back. The decline of Congress marked the beginning of another coalition era in Indian politics. From 1989 to 1991, the country saw two non-Congress Prime Ministers – V P Singh and Chandra Shekhar. In 1991, P V Narsimha Rao led the first Congress coalition government for 5 years. The era of coalition politics continued and from 1996 to 1998, we had three Prime Ministers which included a very short 15-day stint of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The other two regional leaders who led coalition governments in this period were H D Deve Gowda and I K Gujral.
Coalition compulsions ensured Lok Sabha elections were held two times in two years – in 1998 and then again in 1999 – with Atal Bihari Vajpayee returning as Prime Minister on both the occasions. In 1999, the National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party won a majority as a pre-poll alliance. Vajpayee went on to become the first non-Congress Prime Minister to serve a full five-year term.
2004 saw the surprise return of Congress-led United Progressive Alliance to power which remained in government for two terms till 2014.
In 2014, the BJP, led by Narendra Modi, won 282 seats which was 12 more than the half-way mark in Lok Sabha. This was the first time after 1984 that a party had won majority on its own. The BJP did not need any regional ally to run the show, but made them part of the first NDA government. Five years later in 2019, the BJP went on to improve its performance and this time won 303 seats on its own. NDA 2.0 also had space for BJP’s allies. However, since BJP was not dependent on the allies numerically, they had very little say in matters of governance and overall direction of the alliance.
In 2024, the BJP went to the polls with the clarion call of “400 paar”. The party and its allies were confident of another great electoral show and third consecutive clean sweep for the saffron party. But that was not to be. When the results were declared on June 4 this year, the BJP found itself short of the half-way mark. And that brought the NDA’s regional allies back to prominence. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar emerged as the kingmakers propping up NDA 3.0 and ensured that Narendra Modi got record third term as Prime Minister.
The Budget this year was dominated by special packages and announcements for Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, states that play a crucial role in survival of NDA 3.0. After 10 years of complete dominance, the BJP seems to have adjusted well to the changed political dynamics and has managed to keep its allies in good humour, at least for now.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA faced a formidable challenge from the coalition of opposition parties which was led by the Congress. INDIA (Indian National Inclusive Developmental Alliance) bloc, which was formed in 2023 by several opposition parties to counter the BJP, faced a turbulent run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, despite all the contradictions within and the challenges it did manage to stop BJP from winning third consecutive majority mandate. The Congress, helped by allies in key states, managed to nearly double its tally in the Lower House but still fell short of the three-digit mark by one seat.
INDIA bloc, which took shape after a lot of birth pangs, has been pulled in different directions with regionals leaders and the Congress continuously engaged in a game of one upmanship. Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal’s differences with the Congress made headlines. Not only that, even within the regional bloc there was tussle over leadership. All these contradictions ensured that INDIA bloc could never function as a united entity. However, some of the key alliances that it forged, for instance the Samajwadi Party-Congress tieup in Uttar Pradesh, managed to ensure that the BJP fell short of the half-way mark. To that extent, it can be said that the coalition of regional parties played a key role in the return of coalition politics at the Centre.
