: 2024 was by far the warmest year on record in the country since 1901, IMD said Wednesday. It also noted that the last three months of the year (Oct-Dec) together were the warmest on record whereas Oct 2024, individually, was the warmest month in 123 years.
With an annual mean temperature of 25.75 degrees Celsius, 2024 was 0.65 degree C above the long-term average (1991-2020 period). The previous warmest year, 2016, had an anomaly of 0.54 degree C. As annual averages go, the difference of 0.11 degree C between the mean temperature in 2016 and 2024 is quite huge.
The record heat in India was in sync with worldwide rise in annual average temperatures as global warming accelerates. World Meteorological Organisation has observed that 2024 was globally the warmest year on record, exceeding the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees C of warming above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels for the first time. This follows on from the record-breaking 1.45 degrees C rise in 2023, the previous globally warmest year on record.
Releasing the outlook for January, IMD said monthly minimum (night) temperatures are likely to be “above normal” (warmer) over most of India except parts of UP and Rajasthan, some parts of MP and Gujarat and portions of east India such as Bihar, where normal to below normal temperatures are likely.
Slightly more rainfall than normal in Jan, forecasts IMD
IMD chief M Mohapatra, however, said “above-normal cold wave days” are expected over western and northern parts of central India during the month of Jan.
Specifically asked about the weather situation in Prayagraj during Maha Kumbh (Jan 13-Feb 26), Mohapatra said though there was a possibility of below normal (colder) minimum (night) temperature during the period, IMD would provide more precise forecast closer to the religious festival.
Probabilistic forecast map for Jan, released by Met department, shows the possibility of colder day and night (normal to below normal minimum/maximum temperatures) in the region, Prayagraj in Uttar Pradesh, during the month.
Otherwise, the monthly maximum (day) temperatures for Jan are likely to be above normal (warmer) for “most parts of the country except some parts of the northwest, central and adjoining east India and central parts of South Peninsula” where it is likely to be normal to below normal.
As far as rainfall is concerned, Jan is likely to witness slightly more rainfall than normal rains for the month – a situation which may be helpful for the standing rabi (winter sown) crops during the period if its distribution is uniform.
IMD said, “Monthly rainfall for Jan over north India consisting of seven meteorological subdivisions (East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh) is most likely to be above normal,”
It said the monthly rainfall even over the country in Jan is also most likely to be above normal. “Above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except some parts of northwest India and some pockets of the northeast and central India where normal to below normal rainfall is likely,” said Met department.
